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When a match is far from a lock

The odds of an error are greater than you might think in 'cold hit' cases, which tap databases to ID suspects.

DNA: GENES AS EVIDENCE

May 04, 2008|Jason Felch and Maura Dolan, Times Staff Writers

Consistent with his earlier ruling, Benson did not tell them about the database. He replied that they should not speculate about how Puckett was identified.

At 2:30 p.m. on March 6, after 48 hours of deliberation, the jurors filed into the courtroom with a verdict: guilty of murder in the first degree.


For The Record
Los Angeles Times Thursday, May 29, 2008 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 2 inches; 82 words Type of Material: Correction
DNA evidence: A May 4 article in Section A about the statistical calculations involved in describing DNA evidence in a murder case contained an arithmetic error. It said that multiplying the probability of 1 in 1.1 million by 338,000 was the same as dividing 1.1 million by 338,000. Actually, it's the same as dividing 338,000 by 1.1 million. The answer, a 1 in 3 probability of a coincidental match between crime scene DNA and genetic profiles in a state database, was correct.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Sunday, June 01, 2008 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 2 inches; 80 words Type of Material: Correction
DNA evidence: A May 4 article in Section A about the statistical calculations involved in describing DNA evidence in a murder case contained an arithmetic error. It said that multiplying the probability of 1 in 1.1 million by 338,000 was the same as dividing 1.1 million by 338,000. Actually, it's the same as dividing 338,000 by 1.1 million. The answer, a 1-in-3 probability of a coincidental match between crime scene DNA and genetic profiles in a state database, was correct.


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Puckett, now 74, sat motionless in his wheelchair. He later was sentenced to life in prison, with the possibility of parole after seven years. His attorneys said they would appeal.

Interviewed outside court after the verdict, jurors said they had struggled to weigh the different statistics. One said that the "likelihood ratio" was appealing because its name made sense in plain English.

In the end, however, jurors said they found the 1-in-1.1-million general-population statistic Merin had emphasized to have been the most "credible" and "conservative." It was what allowed them to reach a unanimous verdict.

"I don't think we'd be here if it wasn't for the DNA," said Joe Deluca, a 35-year-old martial arts instructor. Asked whether the jury might have reached a different verdict if it had been given the 1-in-3 number, Deluca didn't hesitate.

"Of course it would have changed things," he said. "It would have changed a lot of things."

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jason.felch@latimes.com

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maura.dolan@latimes.com

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