It's also unclear whether the control-obsessed regime would limit the number of aid groups allowed in based on how many trusted military officials it has with language abilities to handle and oversee the groups.
Moreover, many of the affected areas are strongholds for opposition groups that have been fighting for independence. And the economy is struggling and fragile.
"Three of the assessment teams reported very serious civil unrest around the few stores still open," said Paul Risley, a spokesman based in Thailand with the U.N. World Food Program, which has staff members in Myanmar and hopes to get its first chartered plane into the country today. "When there was food and water for sale, large crowds were unable to obtain any, and prices are much higher."
The sudden arrival of relatively high-paid aid workers looking for decent accommodation could further tax the system, fueling inflation. Yet the government is aware of the risks it faces in not allowing outside help.
"They are truly 'damned if they do, damned if they don't,' " said Tim Huxley, the Singapore-based director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia.
The crisis could provide an opportunity for outside aid groups to show low-level Myanmar government and junior military officials that they are not out to undermine the system -- a theme of state propaganda, analysts said. At best they also may be able to show through their work how resources can be distributed without corruption, nepotism or political favor.
The military, however, will almost certainly want to take credit for the relief effort, control aid distribution and get foreign agencies out of the country as soon as possible.
Although the Myanmar regime has few defenders, Zarni said, the crisis has afforded an opportunity to lead by example and to improve people-to-people contacts.
"This is a massive opportunity that should not be missed," he said.
With a bit of luck, some analysts added, this disaster could break the extended logjam between Myanmar and the outside world, in the same way the 2004 Asian tsunami eased tensions between the Indonesian military and rebels in Aceh on the island of Sumatra.
"OK, I'm an optimist," said Adrian Vickers, a professor of Southeast Asian studies at the University of Sydney in Australia.
"But there's a potential that this could be the thing that breaks the deadlock."
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mark.magnier@latimes.com
