"The regime seems very confused," said Zarni, founder of the London-based Free Burma Coalition, who, like many Burmese, uses only one name. "So one group prevails this hour, another group comes in through the kitchen door and prevails the next hour. I don't see the regime having a comprehensive plan to handle this crisis."
Also unclear, analysts said, is whether Senior Gen. Than Shwe maintains his near-monopoly on power or is facing factional challenges.
As insulated as the inner circle may be, ensconced in its bunkers and fancy houses in the new capital, Pyinmana -- built at enormous expense about 200 miles north of the former capital, Yangon -- it can't hide from the growing drumbeat of domestic and international criticism.
Domestically, there is no immediate danger of mass riots or civil unrest because people are struggling too hard to survive, said Aung Naing Oo, a political analyst based in Thailand. But the regime knows anger is building. In addition to many real problems, he said, Myanmar is a superstitious country that has traditionally viewed natural disasters as a sign that the leadership has lost the "mandate of heaven."
The regime, deeply distrustful of foreigners and highly wary of losing control, finds itself under growing international pressure to let in dozens of agencies from abroad whose humanitarian expertise will spotlight its failure to adequately warn the population before the storm and its lumbering response afterward.
"They see the aid community as agents of the West who would foment instability and turn the people against the government," said Charles Petrie, the United Nations' former humanitarian coordinator in Myanmar, who was expelled last fall after he urged the ruling generals to listen to demonstrators criticizing the regime.
Even China, which usually avoids pressuring its neighbor, urged Myanmar on Thursday to accept foreign assistance, even as it called on the international community to respect Myanmar's sovereignty. China's first aid shipment, worth $500,000, has arrived, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said, adding that Beijing was boosting its commitment to $5.3 million from $1 million.
U.S. diplomats continued to talk to mid-level Myanmar officials in Yangon, also known as Rangoon -- receiving "sort of, a lack of response," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack -- and to Chinese, Indian and Thai counterparts.
