The rules of the August referendum set the bar high for knocking Morales out of the presidency. Opponents would have to muster both a greater percentage and larger number of votes than Morales gained in the December 2005 election. He garnered more than 1.5 million votes, almost 54%, a landslide in a nation where presidents seldom win majorities.
That victory provided Morales with broad legitimacy to promote his socialist vision and his close alliance with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Washington's chief adversary in South America.
Even if Morales were voted out of office, he would be eligible to run again in a special election to fill his seat. He probably would be a heavy favorite.
"My polling tells me that no one can challenge Evo," said Eduardo Gamarra, a Bolivia expert at Florida International University in Miami. "Evo would win hands down against any of the traditional politicians."
Yet the president's opponents also see the referendum as an opportunity: They are betting Morales' vote totals will decline from the majority that catapulted him to power. By most accounts, Morales has suffered defections among provincial and middle-class voters.
"If Morales doesn't obtain 54% in the recall [election], he's going to be weaker," Gamarra said.
Critics also see another potential upside: The referendum puts off until at least next year an even more contentious vote -- on a Morales-backed draft constitution. The rewrite could give Morales a shot at two new presidential terms and would probably force the breakup of huge cattle ranches and soybean farms in the east.
Under Bolivian law, analysts say, the country can only have one national referendum per year. The recall would postpone a constitutional vote until at least 2009, with Morales a potentially weakened lame duck. The current constitution bars reelection.
With so many ruptures, many fear violent conflict in Bolivia. But the country has also demonstrated a capacity to pull back from the brink.
"I don't think we'll see a civil war," said Waskar Ari, a Bolivian who teaches at the University of Nebraska.
"Bolivians usually find alternative routes of negotiation, of mutual accommodation, instead of turning to violence," Ari said. "I hope that's what will happen this time."
--
patrick.mcdonnell@latimes.com
Special correspondent Ordonez reported from La Paz and Times staff writer McDonnell from Buenos Aires.
