'Prince Caspian' will rule at the box office

Testing faith is a major theme of "The Chronicles of Narnia" stories, but Hollywood clearly has confidence in the fantasy film franchise from Walden Media and Walt Disney Pictures.

"The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian," opening today at 3,929 theaters in the U.S. and Canada, is essentially the only movie of the summer with a weekend to itself (even next week's "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" and Will Smith's upcoming "Hancock" face a piece of road kill -- er, a "counterprogramming" picture going wide).

Pent-up demand should help the sequel to "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" outdo the original, at least on the initial weekend. Consumer tracking surveys show that the big-budget "Prince Caspian" could debut at $75 million to $80 million, knocking Marvel Studios and Paramount Pictures' "Iron Man" from the top of the box-office heap.

"The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," based on the first of seven books in C.S. Lewis' classic children's series, opened to $65.6 million in December 2005 (or about $72.5 million adjusted for ticket-price inflation). With sturdy legs and international appeal, it ended up grossing $291.7 million domestically and $744.8 million worldwide.

Solid reviews, albeit not as glowing as those for the summer's first hit, "Iron Man," should help "Prince Caspian," as will last weekend's disastrous debut for Warner Bros.' "Speed Racer," which left only sputtering competition in the family film genre. "Prince Caspian" is rated PG for "epic battle action and violence."

In one consumer survey, 41% of females 25-and-up call the "Narnia" sequel their first choice among movies to see this weekend, indicating that moms are on board. Interest among other demographics is almost as keen.

"Caspian's" tracking numbers are on par with last summer's "The Simpsons Movie," which opened to $74 million, and slightly shy of "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," which launched to $77.1 million. But those movies opened against stiffer competition in the thick of summer, so "Prince Caspian" could fare better.

Still, the formidable "Iron Man" is likely to keep "Caspian" under $90 million this weekend, according to executives at rival studios. Even as a distant No. 2 in its third weekend, the metal-clad superhero will add about $30 million to its take.