Ruling adds a new volatile issue to presidential race

It would not be the first time that such a measure was wielded in a presidential election year, and it would not be the only one this year; a similar effort will be on the ballot in Florida, and Arizona may also vote on the issue. In 2004, Republicans sought to maximize turnout of conservative evangelical Christians by running anti-gay initiatives in swing states, including Ohio and Florida.

But that year, voters were almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans when asked who should lead the country. This year, voters are more predisposed to side with Democrats, meaning that Republicans have to work harder to attract them.

"It's a situation that makes it really hard for a Republican who wants to compete for the middle and at the same time hold onto the base," UC Berkeley political science professor Bruce Cain said. "McCain is going to be asked over and over again, 'Where are you on this issue?' Then it seems he either has to abandon the 'straight talk express' and change his view, or live with the consequence of not giving the Christian right what they want."

Democratic consultants said Thursday that the different mix of issues and voters this year may limit the effect of a same-sex marriage initiative. Voters this year are fixed on the economy and the war in Iraq.

"I think it's an environment where people aren't going to pay attention to a lot of noneconomic issues," said Bill Carrick, a Democratic consultant sitting out the presidential race.

Polling indicates that younger voters -- whom the Republicans, making up little more than a third of the state's registered voters, must court -- are more inclined to support same-sex marriage. Republicans pressing too hard risk the same sort of fallout among younger voters that those pushing immigration measures suffered among Latinos.

"At some point, you can't be on the other side of every issue with an entire generation of voters," Carrick said.

Still, GOP pollster Neil Newhouse predicted that an anti-same-sex marriage initiative would motivate religious conservatives to go to the polls and thus will help all Republicans.

"All our data right now shows Democrats are more energized than Republicans in this election," Newhouse said. "If this issue can energize more Republicans and conservatives to vote, then it's a plus for John McCain. . . . It's less relevant how he responds to the issue than how voters respond to it."

Proposition 22, the initiative overturned Thursday, passed in 2000 with the support of 61% of California voters. But recent polls have found the state's voters are now evenly split on same-sex marriage.

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phil.willon@latimes.com

patrick.mcgreevy@latimes.com.

Contributing to this report were Times staff writers Cathleen Decker, Michael Finnegan, Maeve Reston, Lee Romney, Stuart Silverstein.