Gen. David Petraeus says new Iraq troop cuts likely this fall

Qualifying his assessment, Petraeus said the additional troop withdrawals might be small, potentially less than a full 3,500-member combat brigade.

He also said that political goals continued to lag, noting that Iraqi provincial elections scheduled for October will be postponed by at least a month.

But Petraeus was noticeably more optimistic in testimony Thursday than he was during a high-profile appearance on Capitol Hill last month. Then, an Iraqi offensive in the southern city of Basra was faltering, with government troops stymied by Shiite militias, and violence was breaking out in Shiite neighborhoods nationwide.

This time, Petraeus painted a picture of Iraqi troops finally taking the lead against extremist groups and militias on multiple battlefields, from Basra to the northern city of Mosul and Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood in between.

"The operation in Basra did have a shaky start, but it has since seen enormous progress that has produced very positive tactical and strategic results," Petraeus said.

"This has been all-important, because there has been a degree of support for Prime Minister [Nouri] Maliki in the subsequent period that is unparalleled during the time that . . . I have been in Iraq."

Petraeus was testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, which is considering his nomination to become head of all U.S. forces in the Middle East.

At the same hearing, Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, nominated to become the top Iraq commander -- replacing Petraeus -- said he did not think additional U.S. troops would be needed for the Iraqi provincial elections this fall. Extra units have been sent for past elections.

President Bush, meanwhile, speaking to thousands of troops at Ft. Bragg, N.C., said Thursday that progress in Iraq was "undeniable" and that the U.S. was "on our way to victory."

Petraeus' decision to recommend further U.S. troop reductions this fall could have significant political implications at home. The move probably would occur in September, in the midst of a heated presidential campaign in which presumptive Republican nominee John McCain has staked his candidacy on his advocacy of the 30,000-troop buildup in Iraq last year.