Clinton demonstrated more strength than Obama among only a few demographic groups, including white women and older women. But her small advantage among those groups tends to undercut her argument that she is the Democrat best able to deliver big states in November -- at least where California is concerned.
Matched against McCain, Obama won a larger percentage than Clinton of self-described liberals, moderates and conservatives. Both he and Clinton won 86% of liberal Democrats and about two-thirds of moderate Democrats.
Democratic women, Clinton's bulwark throughout the primaries and a source of emotional sustenance now, in the closing days of the race, showed no sign of turning against Obama. About 74% of them sided with Clinton against McCain; 75% sided with Obama against McCain.
Obama won larger percentages against McCain than did Clinton among white voters; he lost them to McCain by four points, while Clinton lost by eight. Surprisingly, however, Obama made up ground among Latinos, who overwhelmingly backed Clinton in the primary. A little more than half of Latinos sided with Obama over McCain, while just under half sided with Clinton over McCain.
McCain has argued that he can run strongly among Latinos, in part because he has long favored comprehensive immigration reform that would include a strategy to legalize immigrants, much to the disdain of many in his party. In the survey, he lost Latinos to Clinton by six points and to Obama by 14 points.
Becky Espinoza of Kerman, a Republican, said she would vote for McCain because "he's got more experience."
"The only thing I hesitate on is his age," she said.
Key to Obama's strength in California, at this point, is the group that was largely ignored in the run-up to the primary: men. Overall, Obama held a 10-point advantage over McCain among men, while Clinton split men with McCain. White men gave McCain a three-point advantage over Obama and a 15-point edge over Clinton. Nonwhite men sided with the Democrats in landslide proportions.
With Republicans now only about one-third of the California electorate, GOP candidates must reach deeply into the ranks of moderates if they are to win statewide. There, McCain was faltering. He was losing moderates to Clinton by 24 points and to Obama by 30 points.
He was also having a difficult time holding on to his own party members. One in five Republicans surveyed by the poll sided with Obama in their matchup. McCain won only 70% of his party colleagues, not enough to offset losing independents and 75% of Democrats to Obama.
The party loyalty numbers were a potential sign of trouble for both McCain and Obama, though at this point they are canceling each other out. Typically, candidates corral nine out of 10 of their party's voters. A substantial drop in Republican support for McCain would put the state out of reach for him, and a drop in Democratic support for Obama could make California more competitive.
cathleen.decker@latimes.com
