JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA — Zimbabwe hangs in a dangerous political limbo: A ruling party clique clings to power amid rumors of a coup if President Robert Mugabe loses the upcoming presidential runoff. His opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai, far from facing down military hard-liners, has been out of the country for weeks, fearing assassination.
As regional leaders dither, a new wave of systematic abductions and killings of top opposition activists suggests a regime that is unwilling to leave office, even if it loses the second round of voting, scheduled for the end of next month.
"There's no way we are going to lose the runoff," one senior ruling party figure said. "We are going to make sure of that. If we lose the runoff, then the army will take over.
"Never be fooled that Tsvangirai will rule this country. Never," the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said in an interview in Harare, the Zimbabwean capital.
Rights organizations, such as Zimbabwe Doctors for Human Rights, say the level and intensity of the violence far surpasses that surrounding elections in 2000 and 2002. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change says 43 activists are known to have been killed since the March 29 vote.
The opposition says the government is targeting its top activists and officials and that at least six have been abducted in the last 10 days by heavily armed security officials. Four have been found dead, it says, their bodies showing signs of severe beating and torture. Ten others are missing and feared dead.
MDC activist Tonderai Ndira was dragged from his bed last week by eight security operatives. His body was found Wednesday, dumped in the bush. His brother Barnabas said Ndira's face had been beaten so badly it was unrecognizable.
Some analysts see the threat of a coup growing, convinced that the punitive violence in Zimbabwe has only increased Mugabe's unpopularity since he was shocked to find himself in second place behind Tsvangirai in the March vote. But others predict the regime, wary of regional isolation, will opt for at least the pretense of legitimacy, rigging the elections rather than using military force to overturn a Tsvangirai runoff victory.
Mugabe is backed by a group of cronies that includes Rural Housing Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, Defense Forces Commander Gen. Constantine Chiwenga and Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri. Several elite units, including the Presidential Guard, the Fifth Brigade and the National Rapid Reaction Force, are loyal to his regime.
