Rose looking like a lock as top pick

This just in: Kevin Love up to No. 5!

Well, in theory, anyway.

The mock draft I did on the night of the lottery came straight out of my little head. I've talked to personnel guys from an East team and a West team since, so now I have an idea of what they're thinking, which, as usual, has some surprises.

There are still two big steps ahead: 1) the Orlando pre-draft camp where players will be measured and weighed so that almost everyone listed at 6-10 will shrink to 6-8 1/2 ; and 2) the teams' individual workouts.

There are always players shooting up the list at the end, especially big players who haven't been scouted a lot -- like Andrew Bynum in 2005 -- so I'm going to try to anticipate the process.

1. Chicago

Derrick Rose, Memphis

Lots of people have Michael Beasley here, but I think Rose is a lock. The Bulls don't think Kirk Hinrich is really a point guard and have shopped him for months.

The question isn't whether Rose deserves to be here but whether he's over-hyped as the next Chris Paul or Deron Williams. I don't think we'll see many more young point guards who'll average 18-20 points and 10 assists, shoot 50% and make 40% of their threes.

2. Miami

Beasley, Kansas State

Said to be a little goofy in high school, but he was great at K-State -- and he worked hard. Lots of people think he's a 20-10 guy. Some would take him ahead of Rose.

3. Minnesota

Brook Lopez, Stanford

Almost everyone has this pick and it figures. The Timberwolves have to go big with only one good big man, Al Jefferson -- although Anthony Randolph could also become a factor here.

4. Seattle

Randolph, LSU

Here's a big (6-10) exciting young player few saw, making a late move at the end of his freshman season but missing the NCAA tournament.

Most people have Eric Gordon or O.J. Mayo here, but with Kevin Durant at shooting guard and Jeff Green at small forward, I'm guessing they'll wind up going big instead. Randolph's reedy body makes him a year or two away with only journeymen and failed prospects up front; of all the teams who have time to wait, they're way up on the list.

5. Memphis

Kevin Love, UCLA

This is high, he still has to prove himself on the pre-draft circuit, but he has already slimmed down and the Grizzlies like him.

They're also tired of super-athletic, clueless types like Stromile Swift, whom they once took at No. 2.

6. New York