There may be something to that. When you look at the steep declines posted by the broadcasters, two additional statistics are telling. One is that compared with last May, the number of people using television actually went up, by 2%. The other is that this season, the average total viewing for ad-supported cable networks rose a healthy 7%, to 51.6 million.
So more people are watching television. More people are watching cable. And fewer, dramatically fewer, are watching broadcast TV.
This can't continue indefinitely without the broadcasters taking what an airline pilot might call corrective action. The legacy networks can't just learn to be content with cable-size ratings and then call it a day. That's because cable networks have a huge, built-in competitive advantage. Unlike broadcasters, they derive revenue not just from advertising but also subscriber fees, which are part of viewers' monthly cable and satellite bills. Broadcasters, at least until now, have been utterly dependent on income from 30-second commercials.
The broadcast bosses say they're all about change now. NBC Universal boss Jeff Zucker spent an hour last week on Charlie Rose's PBS show repeating the mantra that his network has to think now about developing material that can work on multiple "platforms," including online. Easier said than done though. NBC's "American Gladiators" and "Last Comic Standing" belly-flopped in heavily promoted outings recently ("Comic" drew just 5.7 million total viewers opposite the "Grey's Anatomy" season finale Thursday), and it's tough to believe those programs -- both cheap reality fare, with little to no replay value -- will suddenly turn on a magical cash spigot in a different medium.
In re-engineering so heavily toward marketing and various platforms, NBC is trying to have the cart pull the horse. The horse is left behind, wondering what's going on.
The people at Fox are taking a different approach. Two of its most high-profile new series next season, J.J. Abrams' super-expensive drama "Fringe" and Joss Whedon's "Dollhouse," will air with greatly reduced commercial interruptions. By cutting back the ad time available on those shows, the network hopes to persuade advertisers to pay a little more. At a time when network TV is getting buried in ads, sponsorships and product placements, this idea at least returns the focus to where it belongs: on the program.
And programs, ultimately, are the only things that will save the networks in their bid to stay relevant. It's about the programs. It always has been, and it always will be.
Four years ago I couldn't have imagined saying this, but "10.5" is starting to look pretty good now.
--
scott.collins@latimes.com
