Ventura County voters on Tuesday will be asked to choose from a host of candidates running in federal, state and local races, to weigh in on development measures in Thousand Oaks and Santa Paula and to decide in an unusually hard-fought battle for a judgeship.
The state primary balloting will also be closely watched by both major parties, analysts say, to see what effect the Democrats' new status as the largest voting group in Ventura County will have on contests.
Mike Osborn, chairman of the county's Republican Party, predicts minimal effects in Republican-dominated districts.
"Most of the gains were made in areas that are already solidly Democratic," Osborn said. "What we're interested in seeing is how many of these new people actually show up."
For the first time in a generation, Democrats hold a registration edge over Republicans, with 4,123 more voters than the GOP. Party leaders credit strong registration drives earlier this year in Oxnard, Ventura, Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley with helping them turn the tide.
But voter data also indicate that a significant chunk of people have fled the GOP for other affiliations. Although Democrats have held a roughly steady 40% share of the electorate since 1990, the GOP's voter share has shrunk to 38% from 47% over the same period.
Jim Dantona, a Democratic consultant, said he knows several former Republicans, turned off by the policies of the Bush administration, who have re-registered with decline-to-state status.
"These are conservative Reagan Republicans who have told me they want something different," said Dantona, who lost a close race in 2006 for the 4th District supervisor's seat in Simi Valley to Republican Peter Foy. "They are tired of the same old politics and the same old things."
Republicans have also been signing up new voters, Osborn said. But they haven't been able to match the Democrats' fundraising, which has been driven by high interest in the presidential election, he said.
"Given their manpower and money, it gave them an edge that was very difficult for us to overcome," Osborn said.
One of the more closely watched contests on Tuesday will be the Democratic primary in the 24th Congressional District. Insurance agent Mary Pallant of Oak Park; Marta Jorgensen, a Solvang educator; and Oxnard businesswoman Jill Martinez are running.
