Networks vow to be patient, to a point, in projecting presidential winner
Will predictions of network restraint prove accurate?
Reporting from New York — If Sen. Barack Obama racks up victories in key Eastern and Midwestern states tonight, television viewers will probably hear that he appears headed for victory even before the polls close in the West.
But officials at the broadcast and cable networks, as well as the Associated Press, said Monday that they would not project a president-elect until one of the candidates has at least 270 electoral votes in his column. And they won’t award any electoral votes from a state until after all the polls in that state are scheduled to close.
Short of an Obama landslide, it’s unlikely that either candidate will reach the requisite 270 electoral votes without Western states such as California or Nevada.
But that won't stop network analysts from indicating the direction the race appears headed.
"If it seems very likely that one man will reach 270, we will leave little doubt about our expectations," said one TV news executive.
An Obama victory could appear clear early in the night before California has finished voting, because the state is considered a lock for the Democrat.
"If that's the case, we won't declare him the president-elect -- because it won't have happened yet -- but we'll be clear in our language about the likely outcome," the executive said.
If Obama were to sweep the battleground states in the East and Midwest and win Colorado and New Mexico, he could theoretically reach 270 electoral votes around 6 p.m. PST -- two hours before the polls close on the West Coast.
But political news directors said they don't expect to have results that early. In tightly contested states, the networks will not project winners based on exit polls, a change that was made after the 2000 election, when an early call was made that Democrat Al Gore had won Florida. Instead, the networks will wait for actual vote returns, which will delay the calls.
"Based on everything we know about the speed by which the votes will be reported, I think it's highly unlikely we'll hit 270 before 11 p.m. Eastern time," said Sam Feist, CNN's political director, who defended the networks' right to report results as they come in.
"This is information in the public domain that is our responsibility to share with our viewers," he said.
Indeed, trying to hold back the results when both exit poll data and vote returns will be available online is fruitless, network executives said.
