And if it does, Obama will probably ask for more -- including some version of the middle-class tax cut he made a centerpiece of his campaign -- as well as energy and infrastructure projects that would create jobs in a time of rising unemployment.
"We'll create 2 million new jobs by rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges and schools," Obama said in his "closing argument" campaign speech last week. "And I will invest $15 billion a year in renewable sources of energy to create 5 million new energy jobs over the next decade -- jobs that pay well and can't be outsourced."
All that spending will create a budget problem for a president who has promised to reduce the ballooning federal deficit, and it will mean a debate in Congress between big spenders and deficit hawks, including among Democrats.
But if the economy sinks into a recession that some are already comparing to the Depression of the 1930s, that debate may be less paralyzing than in the past.
Up to a point, anyway.
"Are there limits to the spending he can do in his first term?" asked William A. Galston, another aide to the Clinton White House. "Some people say no -- that we're already spending so much, another $150 billion won't hurt. Obama has to decide how much deficit spending the political market will bear. If the budget hits a trillion dollars, the nation will go into sticker shock."
What priorities are likely to be downsized or delayed?
A prime candidate is Obama's plan for near-universal healthcare, which his aides acknowledge would cost at least $50 billion a year to implement, with independent estimates much higher. Instead of moving forward with a comprehensive plan, an approach that led Clinton into a major setback in his first term, Obama may try to take smaller bites.
As early as last summer, former Sen. Tom Daschle, an Obama advisor often mentioned as a potential White House chief of staff, said healthcare reform would be easier to pass "if we take it a piece at a time," instead of as a single, giant-size reform.
Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), another Obama advisor, said healthcare remained a top priority -- but added that he'd be satisfied with passing "a down payment" in Obama's first term.
The president-elect's ambitious energy proposals may also be tackled piecemeal, advisors said. Some elements, such as the job-creating investments in alternative energy that Obama emphasized last week, are broadly popular.
