Prop. 2 unlikely to raise egg prices, study says

For months farmers had contended that the measure would drive up egg prices or even put them out of business because of the high cost of retrofitting their farms with cage-free facilities.

But the measure's proponents and a respected state agriculture expert stressed Wednesday that such results were unlikely, especially in the short term. Proposition 2, approved by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, doesn't take effect until 2015.

Also, California imports a third of the shelled eggs it consumes from out-of-state producers, which are not subject to the new regulations. There would be no reason for a jump in the price of those eggs, according to a study on the economic effects of the proposition from the UC Davis Agricultural Issues Center. Out-of-state producers would also be likely to increase their production to feed Californians.

"There is no reason to expect any significant change in the price of any eggs. That applies to eggs from cage-free hens too," said Daniel Sumner, the primary author of the UC Davis study.

Eggs from cage-free hens generally cost at least 25% more than conventional eggs, according to the study. (Spotted on Monday at Whole Foods in Brentwood: the basic, Chino Valley Ranchers cage-free eggs for $2.39.)

But proponents and opponents, who each spent roughly $8.5 million on their campaigns, see different scenarios affecting mainly the $323-million California egg industry.

The measure bans confining crates and cages for hens, pregnant pigs and veal calves that don't allow the animals to turn around, lie down and extend their limbs.

But because there are few veal producers here and the largest pork producer voluntarily eliminated crates, the measure affects mostly egg farmers, many of whom predict the demise of the state's entire egg industry.

Egg farmers said it would be too costly to retrofit their farms. Sumner, a professor of agricultural economics, agrees.

"The alternative is to lose a million dollars a year," he said. "Growing chickens isn't like growing wine grapes. It's not a romantic business. It doesn't attract a lot of movie stars and Silicon Valley entrepreneurs."