MADRID — Amid the focus on the wars that President-elect Barack Obama will inherit in Iraq and Afghanistan, a third conflict gets less attention: the shadow war against stateless networks of Islamic extremists.
Terrorism greeted the previous two presidents early in their terms. President Clinton faced the bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993 and President Bush the world-changing attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
"I fear Al Qaeda could try to test Obama," said a top Italian anti-terrorism official, who asked not to be identified because of the issue's sensitivity.
A weaker Al Qaeda, tighter U.S. borders and the apparent lack of U.S. support networks make a new strike on American soil unlikely, though not impossible, according to Western anti-terrorism officials. Instead, the foremost possible scenario is an attack on U.S. targets in Europe similar to the alleged plots against American troops in Germany last year and transatlantic flights from London in 2006.
Security officials worry particularly about Al Qaeda recruits returning to Britain and other Western countries from training in Pakistan.
The new administration will also face the threat of attacks, training hubs and radicalization in locales varying from Somalia and Yemen to Western Europe, the front line for a new generation of homegrown militants, Western officials say.
As he takes office, Obama will inherit strong anti-terrorism alliances. Many European investigations grow out of shared U.S. intercepts of online communications, leads made possible because most Internet servers are based in the United States. Cross-border teamwork has driven cases such as the roundup this year in Barcelona of an alleged Pakistani terrorist cell that was infiltrated by a French undercover operative with the help of Spanish and American spies.
"Even during the worst times of diplomatic conflict over Iraq, close cooperation continued because it was in everybody's interests," said security consultant Louis Caprioli, former counter-terrorism chief of the DST, France's lead intelligence agency.
But rifts endure. Although European security forces say they have gathered valuable intelligence from inmates at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, human rights issues concerning the island prison and the secret U.S. "rendition" program have caused bitter clashes.
