FROM SACRAMENTO — It's still too close to call, but the ballot initiative to reform legislative redistricting is looking like a probable winner.
Counties continue to count absentee and provisional ballots. As of Wednesday afternoon, Proposition 11 held a slim 1.6% lead -- roughly 153,000 votes, with up to 1.8 million ballots still to be tallied, according to the secretary of state. The measure actually has widened its lead by half a percentage point since election night Nov. 4.
So let's assume it passes. What's next? Here's what:
By stripping the Legislature of the power to draw its own districts, California voters have opened the door to more political reform.
Next up in efforts to untangle the partisan gridlock and make the state Capitol more functional: A probable ballot initiative in 2010 to return state elections to some form of open primary system. All candidates would compete in the same primary and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, would advance to the November runoff -- similar to the way local officials are elected.
The idea is to force candidates in the primary to appeal to a wider swath of voters than merely their own party members. Presumably that would result in the election of more pragmatic moderates.
California had another version of an open primary system in 1998, but the Supreme Court ruled it unconstitutional. Since then, Washington state has adopted a "top two" system that the Supreme Court has sanctioned. And that's the model for California reformers.
There was troubling news for reformers on Nov. 4, however. Oregon voters, by nearly 2 to 1, rejected a "top two" proposal after strong opposition from the two major political parties, who feared they'd be weakened.
"Parties have degenerated into a philosophical wasteland," says former Democratic state Sen. Steve Peace of San Diego, who is drafting a "top two" ballot initiative. "Their core agenda is a mindless pursuit of election wins with no sense of governing once you get there. They've gotten far out of step with the public."
Also increasingly possible now that Californians are in a political reform mood: Controlling the runaway initiative process, which has become a tool of deep-pocket special interests and a full employment act for political consultants. Reformers talk about giving the Legislature a crack at tinkering with initiatives before they reach the ballot. If the lawmakers and initiative sponsors compromised, that could result in better law.
