Violence traditionally picks up after the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which ended in early October. Iraq's provincial elections, to be held this winter, have rival political groups jockeying for positions of power. And a perceived power vacuum in the White House until President-elect Barack Obama takes office Jan. 20 could encourage some groups to ratchet up the violence.
Baghdad residents at the scenes of some of the latest explosions had their own theories, some of which dovetailed with Grimsley's. Many linked the attacks to negotiations between the United States and Iraq over a security agreement that will govern the presence of U.S. forces in the country after the United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing U.S. forces in Iraq expires Dec. 31.
Rafid Mohsen Saffar, who has a clothing shop near the site of the Saadoun Street blast, linked the violence to neighboring Iran, which opposes the pact and wants to see U.S. troops leave Iraq.
"Some sides will increase the violence to have their influence on the security agreement," Saffar said.
Kamal Yaseen agreed, but he had his own conspiracy theory. "I don't rule out the idea that an American agent planted it [the Saadoun Street bomb] to send a message to the government that violence will persist if there is no security pact," he said.
To a police officer near the site of the Wednesday bombing, who did not want his name used because he was not authorized to speak to reporters, the attacks appeared to be the work of terrorists trying to prove they hadn't given up their fight.
"What kind of courage is it to leave a car and detonate it remotely?" he said, referring to the vehicle that was left to explode in a parking lot.
The blast occurred about 9:30 a.m. Survivors knocked to the ground found themselves on pavement splashed with blood and littered with glass. The rush-hour timing and the location, in a mainly Shiite Muslim area, were similar to other attacks this week.
About 8 a.m. Monday, blasts ripped through a street lined with cafes and shops in Kasra. Police said 31 people died, including five schoolgirls trapped in a bus. And about 5 p.m. Wednesday, during the evening shopping rush, twin bombs tore through a crowded market, killing 14 people and wounding 67.
"The safety is just for the officials and ministers. The victims here are me and you, the helpless people," said a man who gave his name as Ali, a witness to the Kasra explosions.
A waiter in Kasra, Mohammed Kareem, said he recently had begun to feel safe. "But now, after this explosion, I don't feel safe even in my own neighborhood," he said.
"There were a lot of soldiers in the street . . . so who planted the bombs?" he asked. "How did they let them do that? . . . So who can you trust?"
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tina.susman@latimes.com
Times special correspondents in Baghdad and Mosul contributed to this report.
