Commanders quietly acknowledge that when air power is compromised by bad weather, small patrols and remote outposts are more vulnerable. And in winter, living conditions for troops in small, lightly manned bases in the rugged mountains, already primitive, will become even more difficult.
"There's always this shadow factor," said an American paratrooper who has served in several forward bases close to the frontier with Pakistan. "I feel it more in winter than in summer, though -- that sense of being hunkered down, that it's hard to know what's happening out there around us."
Conventional battles occur less often in winter, although such direct engagements have never been a centerpiece of the militants' strategy. However, insurgents did stage some notably brazen frontal assaults on coalition bases and Afghan government installations last summer.
Longtime observers of the conflict say territorial gains are less important to the militants than fostering an impression of a far wider presence than they actually have. In the course of the summer and fall, high-profile attacks in and around Kabul created an uneasy sense of siege for city dwellers, one that may intensify with winter.
Breaking up insurgents' explosives networks has been a top priority for coalition forces, and commanders say they can point to important successes in recent months, particularly in cooperation with Afghan troops. Many such operations have taken place in eastern Afghanistan, where much of the bomb-making materiel is ferried in from Pakistan's ungoverned tribal areas.
Last week, Afghan commandos backed by coalition forces raided the compound of Badshah Khel, said to be an important IED cell leader in Khowst province, and captured him without firing a shot. Days later, another IED network in eastern Afghanistan was reported broken, with 10 militants killed.
Yet roadside bombs continue to exact a disproportionate toll, killing and maiming far more Western soldiers than do direct clashes with insurgents. Rarely do more than a few days pass without news of roadside bombing fatalities -- and for coalition troops, road patrols are a year-round necessity.
The growing danger of travel outside the capital, coupled with the prospect of rough seasonal conditions on Afghanistan's poorly maintained roads, is heightening a feeling of separation between Kabul and the surrounding provinces.
