Democrats may play hardball vs. Specter

Almost six in 10 Pennsylvanians said in an August Quinnipiac University poll that they approve of Specter's job performance -- higher than the ratings for Gov. Edward G. Rendell and Sen. Bob Casey, both Democrats. And Specter has raised $6 million for his re-election run in the last two years, more than any of his colleagues during the period. He has made clear, despite a recurrence of Hodgkin's disease this year at age 78, that he plans to battle for a sixth term.

"Whoever my opponent is, I will be ready," Specter said in an interview earlier this year.

His fundraising is all the more significant heading into 2010 because Senate candidates will be competing for cash with gubernatorial hopefuls in Pennsylvania.

"When you look beyond the trends, you see a much more mixed picture," Young said. "I don't see him particularly endangered any more than he has been in the past."

Previous contests, though, have rarely been easy for Specter. In three of his five general election victories, he won with less than 53% of the vote.

Perhaps his toughest fight came during the primary contest in 2004 against then-Rep. Pat Toomey, who finished within 2 percentage points of Specter and forced the abortion-rights supporter to burnish his conservative credentials.

Toomey, president of the anti-tax Club for Growth, has left the door open to a repeat run in 2010. He argues that Specter is in a more vulnerable position than he was four years ago in part because of the tens of thousands of Republicans who changed their voter registrations this year to participate in the Democratic primary.

In the four Philadelphia suburban counties, a region where Specter has traditionally performed well, Republicans have lost more than 61,000 registered voters in the last four years, a shift Toomey contends would help a more conservative opponent in a primary.

Specter has said he's anticipating challenges from both the right and the left. "I've adopted Satchel Paige's philosophy for a long time," he said earlier this year. "Never look over your shoulder. Somebody may be gaining on you."

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jdrobnyk@tribune.com