Bleak Friday

As if American consumers don't already have enough on their minds, here come Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the nation's annual rituals of mandatory shopping. The looming twosome are like unwanted dinner guests who arrive in the middle of a stressful marital spat or nerve-racking toddler meltdown. We want to say, "Just go away." But there they are on the doorstep, hungry beasts with cloying smiles, dangling a GPS for under $100 and a Blu-ray player at the amazing price of $128.

I'm betting they're turned away, and this year will be different. The usual subtle pressures to shop in order to keep the economy humming have been notably absent. Television coverage of sharp-elbowed shoppers will be replaced by mournful accounts of out-of-work breadwinners and somewhat cheerier how-tos on paying in cash. Neither pundits nor politicians -- nor even Op-Ed writers -- will dare suggest that the consumer has a duty, patriotic or otherwise, to fork over more money or take on more debt to buy a boatful of cheap, made-in-China items. Trust me, 2008 will be the holiday season that wasn't.

Americans are facing an economic collapse steeper, more widespread and potentially far longer lasting than anything experienced since the 1930s. The decline in the stock market is the most dramatic of the indicators: Investors have lost all of the gains of the last 11 years. The end of the home-price collapse/foreclosure crisis is still not within sight. And unemployment is soaring. The official rate of 6.5% is a significant underestimate of true joblessness. As early as July, the Economic Policy Institute reported that there were 2.6 job seekers for every open position; that imbalance is sure to be much higher now.

For the last two decades, the U.S. has been a consumer-driven economy. Bursts of spending have lifted us out of a series of short, not-too-painful recessions. And consumers are well aware of their "heroic" role. They've been told over and over that their spending is the basis for our economy. (Less discussed is how the consumer binge led to our gaping trade deficit.) But there's an underlying paradox: Most American households have seen their pay rates stagnate, so buying has only been possible by working more hours or taking on credit. Now there are no extra hours, and wary consumers aren't taking on credit even when it is available.

These imbalances, at the household, national and global level, appear to be well understood by consumers. They recognize that a business-as-usual binge is likely infeasible and certainly unwise.