Iraqi legislators OK pact setting up U.S. withdrawal

To win backing from the main Sunni Arab blocs in parliament, Maliki's ruling Shiites and their Kurdish allies approved a resolution agreeing to consider a wish list rooted in Sunni complaints of political sidelining and persecution. The demands vary from amnesty for detainees -- most of them Sunnis -- held by the U.S. military to the incorporation of the mainly Sunni paramilitary group known as the Sons of Iraq into government security forces or other jobs.

Rashid Azzawi, a member of the main Sunni bloc, Tawafiq, acknowledged that there was no guarantee the issues would be resolved. The resolution passed by the 275-member parliament does not include a timetable or methods for dealing with the complaints. But Azzawi said it "will bind the sides morally" to take action beyond mere words.

The Sunnis could face problems of their own down the line. If voters reject the pact in the promised July referendum, Iraq's government would have to cancel the accord or seek changes to it, possibly leading to a pullout of U.S. forces earlier than the Dec. 31, 2011, deadline. That would leave Sunnis without the extra protection the United States offers against the Shiite-led government and security forces, where grudges left over from Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led regime run deep.

Analysts said Sunni lawmakers demanded the referendum to present themselves as fierce nationalists unwilling to strike deals with foreign forces.

"Tawafiq's attitude was linked to the upcoming provincial elections," said Toby Dodge of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Dodge was referring to Jan. 31 balloting for provincial councils, where Sunnis currently hold few seats. "They were playing to the audience."

In reality, the Sunnis probably are banking on a public endorsement of the SOFA to keep Americans in Iraq as long as possible, Dodge said.

They also could use the referendum as a bargaining chip against Maliki, said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group. Threatening to lobby for a no vote or for amendments could force the prime minister to deal with Sunni concerns, he said.

"They have real fears about the Maliki government's intentions in the absence of U.S. protection. The referendum may be the only lever they have to shape the security agreement in a way that would extend U.S. protection, or at least force the Maliki government to reassure them by conceding to some of their demands," he said.