KHARTOUM, SUDAN — The U.S.-brokered coalition government that has run this country since 2005 has survived Cabinet reshuffles, oil revenue disputes and even armed skirmishes this year.
But can the partnership that ended a 21-year civil war between Muslim Arab northerners and mostly Christian and animist rebels from the south survive a knock-down, drag-out presidential race?
That's what many have been asking since the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, or SPLM, announced that its chairman, Salva Kiir, would seek to unseat President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir in next year's election.
Under the 2005 peace deal, Bashir and former rebel Kiir, who serves as first vice president, have been jointly running the country. Their parties share Cabinet posts, parliament seats and oil revenue.
But some question whether the fragile government can withstand an electoral fight that pits Bashir, who seized power in a 1989 coup, against Kiir, who took charge of the SPLM in 2005 after the death of Chairman John Garang in a helicopter crash.
"People that break up make bitter enemies," said Hassan Turabi, a top Islamist opposition leader who predicted a hard-fought campaign.
Late last year, southern government ministers staged a walkout over allegations that Bashir was failing to live up to the treaty. Northern and southern armies clashed briefly this spring over who would control the oil-rich city of Abyei, about 500 miles southwest of Khartoum, the capital.
Differences in political agenda, values and style -- which the men once downplayed for the sake of their partnership -- are coming into focus.
The election promises not only to select the next leader of Africa's largest country, but it also could play a key role in determining whether Sudan breaks apart. In 2011, southerners will vote on secession, and their decision will depend partly on who wins the presidency.
There's still a chance that the showdown will never take place. Immediately after the SPLM's political bureau announced in August that Kiir would run, other top officials of the party insisted that a final decision had not been made. The statements appeared to reveal internal divisions.
Kiir has refused to clarify, an indication of what some say is his reluctance to seek the job. He declined to be interviewed for this article.
