TV EXECUTIVES like to say that you can't judge anything by a couple of weeks' worth of ratings. Or at least that's what they like to say when those ratings don't look so hot.
But we're going to throw such caution to the wind here. Based on the first wave of ratings -- and mind you, we're barely two weeks into the regular season, with the financial meltdown and a heated presidential campaign causing viewing disruptions right and left, so to speak -- three networks have a clear advantage. The other two have set themselves up for a long autumn.
After a woozy start, Fox seems to be getting exactly what it wanted in the sci-fi thriller "Fringe": a buzz-y show that can perk up its fall numbers. CBS has done an impressive job bringing back its mashed-potatoes-and-gravy lineup of procedurals (especially the immensely popular "NCIS") and comedies.
And at the CW, an unexpectedly strong return for "Gossip Girl" and a solid start for "90210" have made industry prognosticators stop predicting the network's imminent demise, at least for now.
Meantime, the news has swung from bad to worse for NBC's ratings, which the first week of the season eroded 15% compared with last year among its core young-adult viewers. (Excluding the high-rated Sunday NFL games, the network was down 21%.)
ABC gambled that it could relaunch new shows from last season that went dark during the three-month writers strike. But that bet blew up Wednesday when the return of "Pushing Daisies," "Dirty Sexy Money" and "Private Practice" delivered surprisingly low numbers.
OK, but what does all this mean?
For starters, the results show how, eight months after it ended, the writers strike remains a shadow that hangs over broadcasters. Of course, all the network executives promised before the strike that they were well prepared for any work stoppage. Really, what else could they say -- that they'd simply ignored all the gathering storm clouds last year and were leaving work early to play golf?
But it's increasingly apparent that, once the strike hit, each network made crucial decisions that would, over time, help lead them to their current position. More about those decisions in a minute.
Let's not forget, though, that labor unrest still plagues the movie and TV industries, despite -- or is that because of? -- the fact that the U.S. is teetering on the verge of a recession and populist rage over wealth disparity is reaching epic levels, as evidenced by intense voter reaction to the $700-billion Wall Street bailout that finally passed the House of Representatives on Friday.
