"If consumers start demanding trucks, we think we can still make as many Tundra pickups as they need," said Toyota spokesman John Hanson. Toyota, like its American rivals, has dramatically cut truck production, and it recently said it would use a new factory in Mississippi to make the hybrid Prius sedan rather than the Highlander SUV.
But if the industry starts pumping out trucks again to meet increased appetite, it could be caught naked again in the case of another oil price hike.
A major problem is that developing a new car or truck can take as much as five years, yet economists get fits trying to predict what the price of petroleum will be in a few weeks.
A case in point: the decision by GM, Ford and Chrysler to build diesel engines for big trucks. Just a few years ago, diesel was considerably less expensive than gasoline, making an investment in the rugged, more efficient engines a logical choice. But what was once a 20- or 30-cents-per-gallon price advantage for diesel has evaporated. As of Monday, diesel cost 29 cents more than gasoline on average nationwide, hardly an ideal environment in which to introduce diesel engines.
"It's going to be awfully difficult to sell those diesels," said Jim Hossack of consulting firm AutoPacific. "But it takes so long to develop those things, it's impossible to know."
For now, carmakers are taking a cautious approach to falling gas prices, claiming that it would take a lot more than $3 gas to get them to abandon their plans to build gas-saving cars that appeal not only to American buyers but also to those in Europe and the developing world.
"Things have changed," said George Pipas, lead sales analyst at Ford. "You can't grow selling trucks and SUVs any longer. If you want to grow today, you have to have faith in the smaller end of the market."
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ken.bensinger@latimes.com
