Some within the Pentagon think the move to Centcom will moderate Petraeus' views on troop levels in Iraq, particularly once he sees the risks faced by allied forces in eastern and southern Afghanistan. No additional U.S. troops can be sent to Afghanistan without a corresponding reduction in Iraq.
"They say where you stand depends on where you sit, and so I'll be interested to have that conversation with him later on when he's responsible for both places," said Gen. James T. Conway, commandant of the Marine Corps, at a recent news conference.
The extent of Petraeus' clout will depend, of course, on the winner in November. Democrat Barack Obama has acknowledged that during a July visit to Iraq, he pressed Petraeus to consider faster deployments to Afghanistan.
Republican John McCain, on the other hand, indicated during Tuesday night's presidential debate that he'd give the general a largely free hand when it comes to setting strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and said the two have already discussed Petraeus' plans for Afghanistan.
"I've had conversations with him," McCain said. "It's the same overall strategy" as Iraq.
Petraeus did not respond to a request to comment on his contacts with McCain or Obama about troop deployments. Still, the storm clouds described by Petraeus were varied and, in several cases, potentially combustible. In one, the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government has been slow to incorporate defense militias composed of former Sunni insurgents into mainstream Iraqi security units.
"This has been difficult, and I think you'd have to understand, if you walked a mile in [the Shiites'] shoes, why it's difficult," Petraeus said at Heritage.
"These were people that were shooting at them, shooting at us. They have our blood on their hands, in some cases. But again, this is how you end these kinds of conflicts."
Petraeus also cited the uncertain fate of Kirkuk, the oil-rich northern city where competition between Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens has inflamed tensions, as a potential flash point for future violence.
More immediate are concerns about millions of displaced Iraqis returning to their homes, some of which have been occupied for years by rival sectarian groups.
Petraeus also pointed to expected January provincial elections, where previously disenfranchised Sunnis in western and northern Iraq, as well as bitterly opposed Shiite factions in the south, are competing over political spoils through increasingly powerful regional councils.
Almost all previous Iraqi elections have seen spikes in violence, and U.S. military officials believe the January elections could be the most consequential to date.
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peter.spiegel@latimes.com
