With rising unemployment, falling home values and a sinking stock market, four Los Angeles city and county tax increases on the Nov. 4 ballot have become a tougher sell than some of their backers envisioned a few months ago.
Leaders of Los Angeles' K-12 schools, community colleges, city government and transportation authority each placed tax hikes on the ballot to take advantage of the high number of Democrats expected to vote for presidential candidate Barack Obama.
But with so much economic uncertainty, the business leaders who typically bankroll local tax increases have been donating much smaller sums than in previous years -- if they gave at all. And voters have been telling politicians that they are unsure they can handle an additional financial burden.
"We're certainly hearing from a lot of people that they're nervous about the economy," said Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who is pushing Proposition A, a citywide property tax to pay for anti-gang programs. "They're nervous about whether or not they're even going to be able to hang on to their homes, and property taxes add to that anxiety."
Worried about the recent financial crisis, the Proposition A campaign commissioned an opinion poll last week that shows support for the measure hovering at the two-thirds needed for passage. But to reassure jittery voters, Hahn has begun selling her measure -- which would cost $3 a month per property -- as a bargain, particularly when compared with the $7-billion bond measure sought by the Los Angeles Unified School District.
Meanwhile, officials with the Los Angeles Community College District have been positioning Measure J, their $3.5-billion facilities bond, as a life raft in a stormy economy. Larry Eisenberg, the district's executive director for facilities planning and development, said anxious and unemployed workers turn to the community college system when they need retraining -- and will keep that in mind once they enter the voting booth.
"We've experienced an 11% increase in enrollment this year, and we think that's directly related to the economy," he said. "When the economy goes down, people think they may need to look for something else, and the colleges are where they retool."
Such arguments do not persuade Kris Vosburgh, executive director of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn., who specifically cited the economy in his ballot arguments against both the community college measure and the anti-gang tax.
Vosburgh predicted that voters, already worried about their retirement savings, would not be happy to see so many taxes on the ballot.
"It wouldn't surprise me to see all of these measures defeated," he said.
Others aren't so sure. A spokesman for the school bond campaign said it had no plan to change its message. And county Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky, who is working with Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to pass the half-cent sales tax increase known as Measure R, said voter opinion polls taken all the way through last month -- even during the onset of the global credit crunch -- show the transportation measure at the two-thirds needed for passage.
Backers of Measure R argue that it could recharge the economy by creating 210,000 jobs. And Yaroslavsky said residents are determined to do something about traffic, even if that means being choosy on election day. "Voters are discriminating. They will say 'yes' to this and 'no' to that," he said.
Despite the promising poll numbers, fundraising for Measure R, the transportation sales tax, has gotten off to a weak start. Earlier this week, the campaign reported that it had collected about $103,000, even though that effort was spearheaded by Villaraigosa, a fundraising dynamo.
By comparison, five weeks before the Feb. 5 primary election, the mayor had collected a much larger sum -- $1.6 million -- for a measure to retain the city's telephone users tax.
At this point in the 2006 election, council members had raised $1.3 million for an affordable-housing bond. By comparison, some of those same council members have raised $197,000 for the anti-gang tax, according to fundraising reports.
Backers of the school bonds have raised about $264,000. The only strong showing came from the campaign for the community college bond, which has raised $1.4 million so far -- twice as much as the other L.A. tax measures combined.
Villaraigosa, who supports all four tax measures, conceded that the economy was complicating the campaigns. "But if we don't make these infrastructure improvements, we'll be in even worse shape," he said.
Despite the economic turbulence, the school and college bonds are in a better position to win passage. Under state law, bond measures for educational facilities need 55% to win approval, compared to two-thirds for the transportation tax and the anti-gang measure.
