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Zuma is a mystery in S. Africa

Expectations that he will become president next year are making many uneasy about an unknown agenda.

The World

October 12, 2008|Robyn Dixon, Times Staff Writer

Analysts say Zuma capitalized on anger among communists, unions and the ANC Youth League over Mbeki's aloof style and failure to improve the lives of the poor. But Mbeki's old enemies in the party, such as businessmen Mathews Phosa, Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale, also played a key role in the president's fall.

Ramaphosa was bested by Mbeki in the rivalry to succeed former President Nelson Mandela. He, Sexwale and Phosa were investigated in 2000 and '01 over an alleged plot to topple Mbeki as president. They were exonerated but they never forgave Mbeki.


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The toppling of Mbeki raised questions about Zuma's leadership and ability to exert control. He had repeatedly said Mbeki wouldn't be removed prematurely, and just days before the dismissal likened Mbeki's government to a "dead snake" not worth beating.

"The people who put him where he is, is he a prisoner of them? So far it doesn't look good," said political analyst and author William Gumede.

The ANC took a pro-business approach under Mbeki. Zuma, viewed as an advocate for the poor, has offered few specifics on how he would deliver real change for the impoverished.

"There is no reason for South Africans to be apprehensive," Zuma said at a news conference. "The transition will be managed with care and precision."

But the ANC leadership coup deepened the party split, and some analysts predict a fracture.

Political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki, brother and frequent critic of the former president, said the new leaders in Zuma's camp were a "motley crew," in stark contrast to the educated black elite that always guided the ANC. Mbeki said it was unclear what effect they would have on the ANC: As with pulling a thread in a sweater, you could end up with a big hole, or no sweater at all.

Other analysts said Zuma has shown himself to be a clever strategist. He can be earthy, social and comfortable in his own skin, whether he's wearing traditional Zulu leopard pelt attire, a T-shirt or a suit. He has a reputation as a good listener and mediator.

"There's a certain amount of urban chauvinism in the ANC elite who don't like him because they think he hasn't been through matric [graduated from high school]," political analyst Adam Habib said.

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Goodwill tour

Since becoming ANC president last year, Zuma has been to Los Angeles; London; Paris; Davos, Switzerland; and elsewhere, trying to overcome negative perceptions.

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