"There will be black Americans who will be certain that if [Obama] loses it was on the basis of race," Johnson said. "Then again, there's going to be a percentage of people who, when the race issue is put to the side, didn't like his policy proposals. It could be a combination of those.
"The conclusion that we draw from this is going be varied," he added. "I think we just have to wait and see."
Given the strong emotions Obama has stoked, however, it may be difficult for some voters to see the nuances.
Kevin Rodgers, who works alongside Tonya Jones at Atlanta's First Class Barber Shop, spoke of a trip to Washington that he recently made with his young daughter. After visiting the Jefferson Memorial, he bought her a ruler with pictures of all 43 presidents.
"They were all white, and we discussed that," said Rodgers. "Now, with a win, there'd be a black face on that ruler. That says everything to me."
Rodgers predicted that an Obama victory might trigger a major change in the way black Americans view their country and their countrymen.
"The amount of heart it takes for white people to pick Barack -- I think that will help some black people look at this country with hope," he said. "It will be a real gesture -- a major gesture. I think it's a major blow to hatred."
However, he said, an Obama loss "validates a lot of the discontent" that black Americans harbor.
"It proves it, in a way," he said, referring to lingering prejudice. "It gives validity to it." Some black voters don't want to contemplate what a loss would feel like, much the way Tonya Jones does not want to contemplate a win. But Pennsylvania state Rep. Jewell Williams, a Democrat who represents one of the largest African American districts in the Keystone State, has given it some thought. He said he'd encourage blacks to make Nov. 5 a sick-out day.
"I would encourage every African American not to go to work," he said. "We will need to show how important we are again. Maybe America will pay more attention to us if we all stayed at home."
In the long term, an Obama loss could discourage future political participation among the black voters who have registered for the first time this year, said Wilbur C. Rich, a political scientist at Wellesley College in Massachusetts.
The loss of enthusiasm could extend beyond new voters. Harris, the Chicago school administrator, has voted in every presidential election he could. The 40-year-old likes to think of himself as a coolly dispassionate voter. But he said he cried when Obama claimed the Democratic nomination -- and expects the same kind of cathartic response if the candidate wins in November.
Imagining an Obama loss is another story. If that happens, Harris said, he will probably give up on the idea that voting makes a difference.
"This for me, politically, is the endgame," he said. "If McCain wins, I'm done. I will have conclusively decided that this is a purposeless exercise."
Michael Baisden, a popular radio host and Obama supporter, discounts such talk. "I think that's people hoping for the best," he said, "and preparing for the worst."
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richard.fausset@latimes.com
