WASHINGTON — John McCain's efforts to snare Pennsylvania appear to be faltering despite a substantial commitment of his time, leaving him with a narrower path to the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
McCain is targeting Pennsylvania in hopes of winning at least one state that voted for Democrat John F. Kerry in 2004. With 21 electoral votes, a victory in Pennsylvania could offset possible losses in smaller states captured by President Bush in the last contest.
Yet by any number of measures, McCain's prospects are dimming. An aggregate of public polls shows Barack Obama with a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 1.1 million, about twice the gap in 2004, state figures show.
What's more, prominent Republicans worry that McCain's message is flawed or is being drowned out by waves of Obama ads.
McCain aides insist that they can still win Pennsylvania. Recognizing the stakes, McCain is spending much of the dwindling amount of time left on the campaign trail traversing the Keystone State.
Depriving Obama of a win here is essential for McCain. If Obama holds Pennsylvania, he can clinch the presidency by winning various combinations of states that voted Republican four years ago but are now tilting Democratic: Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina among them.
A look at McCain's schedule attests to his predicament. He is largely playing defense, trying to hold Republican territory. Apart from Pennsylvania, he has campaigned since Friday in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Missouri -- all states that backed Bush four years ago. Polls show Obama leading or nearly tied in each of them now.
Pennsylvania Gov. Edward G. Rendell, a Democrat, said of the McCain campaign in an interview Tuesday: "Pennsylvania is essential to their victory plan, though it's a long shot. If you assume Iowa is gone and New Mexico is gone and Virginia is gone, they have to win a substantial blue state. And we're the best choice out of a lot of bad choices."
But Rendell added that an Obama victory was no sure thing.
Race may be a complicating factor. U.S. Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.) said last week that some in western Pennsylvania may be reluctant to vote for Obama because he is black. "There's no question that western Pennsylvania is a racist area," Murtha said. He later apologized for the remark.
