WASHINGTON — Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, has out-raised his Democratic challenger by more than 2 to 1 in his reelection campaign. A 23-year veteran, he's a mainstay of politics in Kentucky, a state that President Bush easily won and that GOP presidential nominee John McCain is expected to carry.
Yet two weeks before the election, McConnell's reelection is in question. In a political environment that some say is the worst for Republicans since Watergate, Kentucky has emerged as an improbable Senate battleground -- perhaps the biggest surprise of this year's campaign.
Democrats, who control the Senate 51 to 49 with the help of two independents, expect to gain seats in the Nov. 4 election. But now the once unimaginable -- their hopes of capturing 60 seats, enough to head off Republican filibusters -- no longer seems a stretch.
With states like Kentucky suddenly coming into play, Democrats believe they have a chance of gaining the first filibuster-proof majority in the Senate since the Carter administration.
"If this were a normal year, the race wouldn't be close," said Brian Schenkenfelder, a conservative blogger in Kentucky, who noted the bumper crop of "Ditch Mitch" lawn signs across the state. "But for whatever reasons, this isn't a normal year, and the polls have tightened."
In a sign of the political trouble facing Republicans, Democrat Barack Obama is leading McCain in presidential polls, and Democrats -- who hold a 235-199 majority in the House, with one vacancy -- could gain 20 to 25 seats there, according to political handicappers.
For beleaguered Republicans, the Senate poses its own set of obstacles. First, Republicans must defend 23 seats, with five of their senators retiring; Democrats must defend 12, with no retirements. Second, GOP candidates must run as Bush's approval ratings rival President Nixon's.
And, as if that weren't bad enough, there's the economy.
"I don't think that there's any question that it's a tough election atmosphere for Republicans," conceded Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), who heads the Senate GOP's campaign effort.
Still, few expected McConnell to be in a tight race against Democrat Bruce Lunsford, a healthcare executive. Many political handicappers still give McConnell the edge.
But Democrats believe they have a good shot at exacting revenge for the defeat of then-Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota four years ago.
