Most California voters still oppose gay-marriage ban, poll finds
While California voters remain closely divided on the question of gay marriage, a majority oppose a measure to ban it, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California.
But the poll also found that support for Proposition 8, which would amend the state Constitution to disallow same-sex marriage, has gained somewhat since a similar survey was taken in late August. The latest results show 44% in favor and 52% opposed, with a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points.
Recent polls commissioned by groups for and against the initiative have showed it passing, though most political analysts put less faith in polls funded by partisans than in those conducted by independent groups like the Public Policy Institute.
The institute's president, Mark Baldassare, predicted that the election would be close. Polls on the more general question of how voters feel about gays and lesbians marrying have consistently shown a deeply divided electorate, with voters split almost evenly and passionate feelings on both sides.
With huge turnout expected from younger voters and independents, the election is filled with uncertainties, and polling experts say it poses special challenges for pollsters.
Other findings of the poll include:
* Likely voters remained closely divided on Proposition 4, a constitutional amendment that would prohibit girls under 18 from getting abortions without their parents being notified. The poll found 46% in favor, 44% against and 10% undecided.
* Nearly one-quarter of voters remain undecided on Proposition 11, a ballot measure backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger that would set up an independent commission to redraw boundaries for legislative districts. The poll found 41% in favor, 34% opposed.
* Four out of five voters said they were worried about the state budget. Fourty-four percent say they support fixing the budget gap with a mix of spending cuts and tax increases while 37% say they want to see mostly spending cuts.
The findings were based on telephone surveys of 1,186 likely voters between Oct. 12 and 19.
The Proposition 8 battle has emerged as the most expensive of all of this year's ballot measure campaigns, and has aroused strong passions on both sides. As of Wednesday, Yes on 8 campaign committees had raised $26.7 million while the No on 8 committees had brought in $26.1 million
