"High School Musical 3: Senior Year" is the third installment of Walt Disney Co.'s franchise in the last three years, a surprise cash cow that ran on cable TV and now springs to the big screen.
"Saw V," its potential rival for No. 1 this weekend at the box office, is the fifth movie in Twisted Pictures and Lionsgate's lucrative horror series in the last five years.
If other industries recycled their material as regularly as Hollywood, global warming would be a distant memory.
Consumer tracking for the G-rated "High School Musical," produced for a reported $11 million after tax incentives, points to an opening of $25 million to $40 million, according to executives at three studios. The R-rated "Saw," made for $10.8 million, is expected to snag about $30 million this weekend. In other words, presidential pollsters aren't the only ones who can't figure out whether we're on the brink of a landslide or a squeaker.
Projector, whose Disney pals just love it when he sets the bar sky-high, is tossing the tracking and predicting a launch of more than $45 mil- lion for "High School Musical" based on hunch and anecdotal evidence.
The upbeat musical, re-teaming Zac Efron, Vanessa Hudgens, Ashley Tisdale et al., and conveniently introducing a fresh-faced sophomore class, feels like a phenomenon a la "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour" or the racier "Sex and the City" -- ideal escapist fare for these harsh times.
The musical has accounted for more than 80% of this week's presales at Fandango.com and MovieTickets.com.
With two high-profile sequels targeting loyal and vastly different audiences, exhibitors should benefit from a jump in overall box office.
Chuck Viane, Disney's distribution president, said his "dream" was to break the opening mark for a live-action musical, held by "Mamma Mia!" at $27.8 million. Though 17.3 million people tuned in last year to Disney Channel's premiere of "High School Musical 2," Viane cautioned that the new film is a bit of a question mark as the first theatrical version.
Even so, he said the audience could broaden beyond the tweens and their moms who make up the series' fan base.
"You're always looking to be entertained, and maybe a bit more so than ever," Viane said. "But the play's the thing: Make a fun movie and people will come."
