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Early turnout defies trends

Voters who weigh in before election day usually lean GOP. This time, Obama's base seems to dominate.

CAMPAIGN '08

October 25, 2008|Peter Nicholas, Nicholas is a Times staff writer.

WASHINGTON — Record numbers of voters across the nation are casting ballots before election day, including high proportions of Democrats and African Americans in some of the battleground states in what appears to be a promising sign for Barack Obama.

In the 32 states that allow people to vote before Nov. 4 without a special excuse, election officials report heavy turnout as the presidential campaign reaches its frenzied last days. That's not surprising in a campaign that has received round-the-clock attention. But it also reflects the intensive efforts of campaigns competing to bank votes before election day.


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In North Carolina, which hasn't gone for a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost a million people have voted, and Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2 to 1.

"We're going to bust every record we've ever had," Gary Bartlett, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said of the state's early-voting participation.

A surprise is the makeup of the early voters, election experts said. In past campaign seasons, Republicans have used early voting to their advantage, mobilizing a slice of the electorate that typically skews their way.

Yet a look at voters in a handful of crucial states suggests that Obama is turning out his base in numbers that surpass those of Republican John McCain.

"Historically, we've seen that early voters are older, they tend to be white, have higher incomes and are better educated," said Paul Gronke, director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Portland, Ore.

"And that group of people tends to trend Republican. Now we have a mirror image in this campaign."

Lloyd and Sandra Clemons, a retired couple who voted early Friday near Pittsboro in Chatham County, N.C., said they chose Obama, whom they described as an inspirational figure.

Sandra Clemons, a former municipal worker, said she was initially a Hillary Rodham Clinton supporter because she figured Obama's candidacy would fade.

"I was afraid he wouldn't make it and I'd be disappointed. Now I think it's a major historic event -- just unbelievable, and very exciting," she said.

Early voting continues in many states, so the numbers can change. But Obama seems well-positioned in several Republican-leaning states that have the potential to broaden his path to the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

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