Election's endgame is no sure thing

Obama, by contrast, is marshaling the most lavishly funded presidential campaign in history, with more than 1.5 million volunteers locking down Democratic states and pushing deep into Republican territory. His message of change, which has remained consistent since he started running, will stay the same.

In that way, the endgame strategies of the two campaigns have come to resemble the candidates themselves: McCain restless, scrappy and used to fighting from a crouch; Obama disciplined, deliberate and serenely confident.

Both sides believe the race is not over, but each acknowledges that the Illinois senator has the upper hand, with multiple scenarios to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win. He leads in every state he must carry and several that McCain can't afford to lose, including Colorado, Ohio and Virginia.

Worse for McCain, many political analysts believe there is little the Republican can do to change the dynamic of the race. "It would take some major external event, probably related to Obama making a humongous mistake or the release of some newfound pertinent information or some major international incident," said Matthew Dowd, who managed President Bush's 2004 reelection bid and is now a political independent. "The plane's on autopilot. Maybe lightning will strike the plane, but there's nothing [McCain] can do about it."

Aides to the Arizona senator reject that notion. "What we've seen in many states right now are close races in the key states, and some have been moving closer as the week has moved on," said Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director. Privately, however, in their gloomier moments, some McCain aides discuss his return to the Senate and speculate whether his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, will run for president in 2012.

The Obama camp has a different problem: trying to stave off overconfidence. Memories of 2004 -- when Democrat John F. Kerry entered election day leading in several key states -- have a chastening effect. "It wasn't too long ago that people thought McCain was on a pathway to sure victory," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign chief. "As an organization, we don't get too high or too low."