WASHINGTON — The global economic crisis is destabilizing a growing number of developing countries, sharpening security risks in many regions at a time when the United States and its wealthy allies are preoccupied with their own problems.
The distress is likely to push tens of millions of people below the poverty line, stirring social unrest that weakens governments and threatens to increase the number of "stateless zones," lawless areas that are havens for criminals and violent extremists, say U.S. officials and other experts. In the poorest countries, the crisis could undermine or even topple governments, they say.
"For the next few years, the world will be a more dangerous place," predicted Mitchell B. Reiss, who was a senior State Department official during President Bush's first term.
Developing countries vital to U.S. economic and security interests such as Mexico, Turkey, South Korea and Pakistan face credit shocks, rising unemployment, slowing growth and deepening social tensions. Their problems are forcing the U.S. and other major powers to rethink foreign policy priorities. And they loom as a challenge to the administration that will take office in Washington in three months.
Many countries that are sufficiently developed to have links to global financial institutions have quietly begun urgent conversations with the International Monetary Fund, a lender of last resort.
Going to the IMF is considered a drastic step because of the sometimes burdensome conditions -- including unpopular tax increases and spending limits -- the fund imposes on borrowers.
A second set of countries, the poorest and most vulnerable, will begin feeling the crisis in the next few months.
Many of these nations will suffer as commodity prices fall and the foreign aid and investment on which some are heavily dependent dries up.
"Even a modest reduction in development assistance, along with lower foreign direct investment from the developed world, may be all it takes to tip them into anarchy," Reiss said. "The social fabric of many countries will be stretched and even torn."
The stress is likely to increase famine, disease and crime and could imperil the poorer governments, predicted Reiss, who is diplomat-in-residence at the College of William and Mary in Virginia.
The president last week voiced concern about the danger the crisis poses to the developing world and warned that if governments cut aid, it could threaten security far away.
