He and others contend that companies such as Toyota would quickly fill the void for supplier giants such as Lear Corp. and Johnson Controls Inc., particularly if the economy recovers enough to boost sales to pre-2008 levels. For laid-off autoworkers willing to relocate, they might even offer employment. Essentially, the theory goes, the net effect on employment would be nil.
"After a period of adjustment, it would basically be a wash," said the University of Michigan's Grimes.
Romain Wacziarg, economics professor at UCLA's Anderson School of Management, takes the premise a big step further. He suggests that building any cars -- be they Toyotas or Chevys -- in the U.S. no longer makes sense because they can be built more efficiently in semi-skilled labor markets such as Mexico.
He compares automaking to shipbuilding and steelmaking, which were huge in the U.S. decades ago but ultimately moved overseas, forcing development of new industries or specialized remnants of the departed industries.
"You have very severe short-term effects on communities," Wacziarg said. "But in the long run, the economy learns to specialize in new activities that have a higher value. Pittsburgh reinvented itself after steel. Detroit may have to do the same."
As U.S. bulk steelmaking ceded to specialty steels, so could U.S. automaking focus on cutting-edge vehicles such as hybrids and electric cars.
"I think carmaking in the U.S. will continue to exist in some form," said Elon Musk, chairman and chief executive of San Carlos-based electric carmaker Tesla Motors. "There's some fundamental restructuring to be done though."
For those who work in the auto business, such a transition is unthinkable. "If you're looking at identifying an essential part of the economy, we would insist that this industry still plays a huge role," said Greg Martin, a GM spokesman. "Any plan to stabilize the economy would have to encompass the U.S. auto industry."
That's very much on the mind of Rep. Dale Kildee (D-Mich.). He joined seven other members of Michigan's congressional delegation in sending a letter last week to Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke urging the two to "use their broad regulatory authority" to "promote liquidity" for U.S. carmakers.
