Ohio, Florida favor Obama

The Times poll focused on Ohio and Florida because they are vote-rich states that have been closely contested and could decide the outcome of the presidential race. The two were pivotal to the outcome of the last two presidential contests: Florida, with its dramatic recount in 2000, was key to President Bush's election; in his 2004 reelection, Ohio put him over the top with a slim 51%-49% victory.

Unlike in the 2000 election, when Ralph Nader siphoned votes from Democrat Al Gore, third-party candidates are not likely to change the 2008 outcome in Florida and Ohio, the poll indicates.

When voters were asked how they would vote when presented with a five-candidate field -- including independent Nader, Libertarian Bob Barr and Green Party candidate Cynthia A. McKinney -- Obama still came out ahead of McCain, with his margin growing among Florida voters and shrinking in Ohio. McKinney and Barr are former members of Congress.

Gloom about the economy is pervasive in Ohio. Among registered voters polled, about 90% say the economy is doing badly, and that affects how they size up the candidates. Fully one-half of Ohio registered voters polled said that domestic issues such as the economy were most important in their choice of presidential candidate. Only 16% cited national security issues, which many see as McCain's strong suit. Ohio voters polled said they trusted Obama more than McCain to make the right decisions about the economy, 50% to 38%.

It is hard to measure the effect of Obama's race. In Florida, the poll indicates that he draws 43% of the white vote, about the same as Sen. John F. Kerry did in 2004. But in Ohio, the poll shows that Obama has a lower share of the white vote: 42% to Kerry's 47%.

Jerry Mills of Edgerton, in northwest Ohio, said that being African American hurts Obama in small towns. "There are no blacks in this part of the state," he said. "That's got to go against him."

What is more, Obama has been dogged by a rumor that he is Muslim. (Obama is Christian.) The poll indicated that 7% in each state believed he was Muslim. Nearly half of respondents in Ohio and 44% in Florida said they were not sure what his religion was.

Nonetheless, Obama is benefiting from the fact that voters say they are looking for a candidate who will bring change to Washington, even more than experience. Of those who gave priority to change, 8 in 10 respondents in both states were backing Obama.