Gulf oil complex is spared the brunt

Much remains unknown about the fate of refineries that stretch from Alabama through Louisiana and into Texas, which collectively account for about half of the nation's oil-processing capacity. As of Monday morning, the storm had shut 12 refineries and slowed production at 10 more, representing a loss of more than 10% of U.S. gasoline production.

"This hurricane event is not over yet . . . and you had a wide swath of area that lost power," said Andrew Lipow, a Houston-based consultant. Long power outages could cripple big refineries as well as the pipeline pumps that send fuel to the Northeast and other regions -- a big problem after Katrina.

Lipow noted that the winds were not as severe as during Katrina and the storm moved quickly over land, giving hope that refineries wouldn't suffer as much flooding damage as they did three years ago.

"I'm expecting much less damage," Lipow said. Compared with Katrina, he added, "The industry as a whole is more prepared to get back running again."

Stephen Schork, who writes a newsletter on oil and energy markets, said Gustav was not strong enough to derail a general slide in oil and gasoline prices.

"Barring any long-standing damage from Gustav, we are heading lower," Schork said.

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elizabeth.douglass@latimes.com