The state of the economy is a tricky issue for McCain, in part because it works to his disadvantage in two key electoral states with high unemployment: Michigan and Ohio.
Michigan voted very narrowly for Democrats in the last two presidential elections, and Republicans had hoped to swing it to their side of the ledger in this one. But Michigan has the highest unemployment rate of any state in the country -- 8.5% in July -- and a large percentage of disproportionately affected blue-collar and auto industry workers.
Ohio, another crucial state for both parties that has been hit hard by losses of manufacturing jobs, had an unemployment rate of 7.2% in July.
"The bad news for McCain is that these unemployment numbers have the most impact on the states that matter the most for McCain's winning," Smith said. "They must carry Ohio. If they lose Ohio, they lose this election."
California's unemployment rate remains significantly higher than in most of the rest of the country, hitting 7.3% in July -- a 12-year high. Unemployment is even higher in metropolitan Los Angeles, 7.5%, and is close to 9% in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, which have been slammed by the housing downturn.
At a job center in Los Angeles on Friday, July Alas said he had not been able to find steady work since he left a plumbing job two months ago because he couldn't get along with his boss. He said his mother was helping him out financially, but he's had to stop going to movies and couldn't afford to buy things he'd like, including a couch and TV set.
"It's been pretty rough -- you're limited in what you're able to buy and you can't go out as much, which affects everything else," Alas said. "I'm making it only because of my mom. It seems like a lot of young adults these days are having to fall back onto their parents and rely on their support."
Alas said that he expected the economy to dominate the campaign -- and that he planned to vote for McCain.
"I'm pretty sure bringing down the unemployment rate will be one of McCain's top priorities, because it's a major crisis right now," he said.
A recession is popularly defined as a drop in gross domestic product for two straight quarters. That hasn't happened yet, although growth has been anemic for most of the year. But as Bank of America economist Peter Kretzmer pointed out Friday, "There's been no time in the postwar period where the unemployment rate rose this rapidly and this far without the United States being in recession."
