The governor renegotiated a contract with the union a year after the recall, but the two parties have been at loggerheads since that agreement expired in July 2006.
The union has long been considered a formidable political player in Sacramento, but its effectiveness has been questioned in recent months, even by some of its own members, as it has failed to win new contract terms from the governor or state lawmakers. Union president Mike Jimenez faces a contested election later this month.
Nonetheless, the prison guards wield a potent weapon: money. They reported earlier this summer having more than $4.4 million available, funded by members' dues, for campaign purposes.
Schwarzenegger, who was reelected easily two years ago, first ran for office on promises to put the state's fiscal house in order. Five years into his tenure, the state faces a projected $15.2-billion budget deficit. In trying to close it, he has reneged on a core vow not to support a tax increase.
The governor's poll numbers have been sinking. In August, 43% of likely voters approved of his performance, down from 59% almost a year earlier, according to surveys by the Public Policy Institute of California. His disapproval ratings jumped to 52%, up from 31% over that same period.
"I think people recognize that this is a guy that spent his life posing," Corcoran said. "That's what he did as a bodybuilder, he posed, and that's what he's done as governor."
But Schwarzenegger remains more popular in California than state lawmakers, President George W. Bush, or members of Congress. Gary Jacobson, a political science professor at UC San Diego, said the union's effort would be a long shot.
"I think it's a way of showing their unhappiness with him," Jacobson said. "But who knows? Crazier things have happened."
The union has begun collecting signatures on a "notice of intention" to circulate a recall petition, according to Corcoran. But the petition has not yet been filed with the secretary of state's office, spokeswoman Kate Folmar said.
The union would have to collect more than 1 million signatures to put the recall on the ballot, which could cost between $1 million and $3 million, according to political consultants familiar with such campaigns.
Corcoran did not specify how much the union would contribute to a recall campaign.
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michael.rothfeld@latimes.com
