WASHINGTON — Entering the final stage of the race, the two presidential campaigns are plotting strategies that rely on vastly different readings of the electoral map, with Democrat Barack Obama competing hard in a large number of traditionally Republican states and John McCain, the GOP nominee, focusing on a small set of familiar battlegrounds.
A wild card in their calculations is McCain's surprise vice presidential choice, Sarah Palin.
Strategists in both parties say it is too early to assess whether the Alaska governor's conservative profile, which has energized core Republican voters, will put new states in play for the GOP ticket. A McCain campaign that has struggled with a lack of enthusiasm says it is already heartened by one post-Palin development: a wave of new GOP volunteers in Florida, Wisconsin and other crucial states.
National polls suggest the race is a tossup. In presidential contests, though, the trick is stringing together victories in enough states to clear a 270-vote majority in the electoral college.
With the election less than two months out, each campaign is reevaluating the map. Privately, McCain strategists acknowledge they are up against a mighty field operation assembled by the Obama campaign, which McCain's team has been hard-pressed to match.
The Obama campaign's worries include carrying Wisconsin and New Hampshire, two states that voted Democratic four years ago but are no sure thing this time around. They are also keeping a wary eye on Michigan, another Democratic state in 2004. Obama made two stops there Monday, talking about the slumping economy.
"We had no illusions that this was going to be anything but close," David Axelrod, Obama's lead strategist, told reporters recently.
Armed with the larger bank account, Obama's plan has been to maximize his chances by trying to win states that were out of reach to Democrats in recent elections. He is making serious investments of staff and advertising in 18 states, 14 of which voted to reelect President Bush in 2004.
The idea is to hold on to all of the states that Democrat John F. Kerry won in 2004, then peel off enough traditionally Republican states to put Obama over the top. So, even at this late point in the contest, the Obama operation boasts dozens of paid staff and multiple offices in states such as Montana and North Dakota.
