"We don't want to let complacency sink in. That is exactly when something can happen," said a senior British anti-terrorism official. "The threat hasn't manifested itself in the West recently, but the picture looks a lot different if you are in Algiers or Islamabad."
The timing of terrorist attacks is dictated largely by logistics, targets and anniversaries of significance to extremists. Although Bin Laden interjected himself into the U.S. electoral debate in 2004 by releasing a video days before the presidential vote, the Western political calendar seems to have little effect, according to anti-terrorism officials.
A historic exception: Train bombings here in 2004 killed 191 people and influenced the Spanish elections three days later. The Madrid attacks displayed the devastating capacity of a makeshift cell with only indirect links to the broader Bin Laden network.
With the U.S. presidential election campaign in its homestretch, officials say they will heighten their vigilance. European anti-terrorism officials say they expect a final push by the Bush administration to capture or kill Bin Laden and top deputies. And the start of the countdown to the Nov. 4 election coincides this year with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Although Ramadan is a period of reflection and prayer for most Muslims, it can also spur extremists to action.
"The analysis takes the American elections into account," said veteran anti-terrorism prosecutor Stefano Dambruoso, now director of international programs for Italy's Justice Ministry. "The threat could be from 'Qaedists' -- Internet radicals who are not directly in contact with Pakistan -- or directly from Al Qaeda. More likely the first than the second."
Al Qaeda remains determined to strike on American soil, anti-terrorism officials say. But it has run up against aggressive surveillance, tough border security and a lack of extremist communities in which to operate. Instead, officials say, it appears to have focused on using Europe to hit targets such as the flights bound for the United States from Britain.
Europe has its own worries. After Madrid and London were hit, Italy and France seemed vulnerable. But thus far, a crackdown on the European mainland has prevented any plot by widespread networks of North African militants from reaching advanced stages.
