After the convention bumps, poll shows Obama with slim lead
The Democrat leads rival John McCain 49% to 45% in a new poll. The point spread returns to essentially the same levels seen before the conventions.
With fewer than seven weeks to go, the presidential campaign has essentially returned to where it was before the national conventions, with Democrat Barack Obama having the slimmest of leads over Republican John McCain, according to a national poll released this morning.
The poll, conducted this month by Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, shows Obama leading McCain 49% to 45%, according to the university's website. The four percentage point spread is slightly narrower that the August poll, which had Obama up 47% to 42%.
The poll is based on 987 likely voters questioned from Sept. 11 to Sept. 16 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points either way. Although the poll results are just beyond the margin of error, they are too broad to explain the electoral vote which will actually determine the general election.
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Only part of the interviewing came during the beginning of this week's economic meltdown and the federal government's intervention to stabilize the markets. Still, it provides a snapshot of the race that gyrated wildly after the conventions and the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be McCain's running mate. The GOP candidates are campaigning together in Iowa and Wisconsin today.
"Sen. Obama is right back where he was before the so-called convention bounces with a four-point lead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The Democratic discombobulation after the selection of Gov. Palin as GOP running mate seems to be steadying. Women, black voters and young people favor Obama. Men, white voters and evangelical Protestants pick Sen. McCain."
But the poll also shows that the Obama camp still has to work to reach out to women who supported New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Palin, the first woman on the GOP national ticket, has tried to draw disenchanted women voters from the Democrats.
"Bringing Clinton voters aboard remains a problem for Obama. One in four who voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primaries say they're for McCain now," Carroll said.
The major party presidential candidates are both favorably seen by similar percentages. The poll found that 56% of those likely to vote have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 54% have a favorable view of McCain.
The similarity carried over to the vice presidential candidates. Palin is seen favorably by 40%, although 28% said they don't know enough to form an opinion. Delaware Sen. Joe Biden gets a 40% favorable rating, but 36% said they don't know enough to form an opinion.
