Estefan estimates that as long as oil prices stay above $70 a barrel, the field will be profitable. But proving the size of the Pre-salt reserve could take six or seven years, he added, and as many as 40 additional exploratory wells, which will require billions of dollars in investment.
That's a big reason Petrobras this year said it was changing its investment strategy, pulling back from several oil projects in foreign countries to deploy more resources at home.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Thursday, September 25, 2008 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 1 inches; 36 words Type of Material: Correction
Oil field: An article in Business on Wednesday about the Pre-salt oil field in Brazil said the state-controlled oil company Petrobras made its announcement about the exploratory wells last week. The announcement was made Sept. 10.
The government is expected to release a development plan by Tuesday. Officials at Petrobras, once a state monopoly and now 45% owned by private shareholders, declined several requests for interviews.
"It's very dangerous to change the rules of the game now," said David Zylbersztajn, an energy consultant and onetime president of the country's hydrocarbons agency ANP, which was formed in 1997 to break Petrobras' monopoly and attract investment.
"The current system has worked very well. After all, it's what got us to Pre-salt."
President Lula feels confident enough in the oil field's potential to have declared during Brazil's independence day celebrations this month that the bounty from Pre-salt may abolish Brazilian poverty.
"It may be premature to talk that way," said geologist Estefan. "But technically I don't see impossible problems. We have had big challenges before but nothing that Petrobras engineers and researchers weren't able to solve."
Zylbersztajn was more circumspect.
"It's going to be risky," he said. "But that's oil."
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chris.kraul@latimes.com
