Poll gap doesn't dim GOP hopes
With 39 days to go before the presidential election, California Republicans meet in Anaheim today in a familiar position -- voicing public optimism about their chances while privately hoping for lightning to strike.
As delegates traveled to their fall convention, polls caught the presidential contest in California in stark relief: Republican John McCain is losing to Democrat Barack Obama by double digits, about the same margin as the GOP candidates in the last four presidential contests here. Earlier polls showed a similar gap between the two candidates.
No one expects California to play a key role in the electoral college math, barring a complete reshaping of the presidential contest in the remaining days before votes are cast. The convention agenda itself underscores California's lack of import to the major party combatants: the chief speechmakers over the three-day meeting are former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who lost the nomination to McCain, and former Gov. Pete Wilson, whose previous convention visits included his effigy being tarred and feathered by activists.
"The sheer numbers -- the demographics, the trends for the top-of-the-ticket races -- have certainly been in favor of the Democrats," said Mark Baldassare, who directed the Public Policy Institute of California poll that this week found Obama ahead 50% to 40%.
The enthusiasm of Republican activists has been bolstered by the presence of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on the ticket, but the GOP is being battered by disturbing and related trends as it looks toward November.
Short-term, the party has been losing the battle to register new voters. Since September 2004, Democratic ranks have increased by more than 347,000 voters, while the number of Republicans has slumped by almost 239,000.
The statistics in the last year are even more striking: Since last September, Democrats have added more than half a million voters, while Republicans have lost more than 27,000.
Democrats appear to be doing particularly well among a burgeoning army of younger voters and Latinos.
Among California voters, 43.9% are Democrats and 32.3% are Republicans.
That movement dovetails with another development of concern to both parties but particularly troublesome for Republicans: The ranks of those who register without allying with a particular party -- "decline-to-state" voters -- are the fastest-growing segment of the electorate.
