RENO — By just about any measure, now is a fine time to be a Democrat in Nevada.
Barack Obama has built one of the most formidable political operations the state has ever seen. Party registration is soaring. The Republican governor, Jim Gibbons, may be the most unpopular state executive in the country.
The economy, which thrived for decades, is in frightfully poor shape -- for months Nevada has led the nation in home foreclosures, and unemployment stands at a 23-year high -- handing Democrats a bludgeon with which to pound the GOP.
For all of that, however, the state's presidential race is a dead heat, making Nevada one of a dozen or so states that could decide the contest between Sen. John McCain and the senator from Illinois.
The numbers are going Obama's way. There are 76,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans statewide, and the party has posted big gains in the Las Vegas and Reno areas, where most voters reside. Four years ago, registration tilted Republican, and President Bush won Nevada by 21,500 votes.
"All Obama needs is to get a third of those new Democrats and those numbers turn around," said Eric Herzik, who teaches political science at the University of Nevada, Reno.
But the numbers tell only part of the story in the nation's westernmost battleground.
Nevada is a state with a broad libertarian streak, an aversion to taxes, affection for guns and open contempt for its major landlord, the federal government, which controls 90% of state land. All of that makes it tough for a Democrat to compete statewide -- even one who isn't black and with an odd-sounding name.
Given those pluses and minuses, there may be no better test of Obama's campaign strategy than here in Nevada, a state that has gone with the winner in all but two presidential elections over the last century.
To win the White House, Obama hopes to dramatically boost the number of voters in November, pulling in casual participants as well as those -- particularly young people -- who have never cast a presidential ballot.
It is a calculated risk; one advantage for McCain, here and elsewhere, is that Republicans tend to be much more certain to show up on election day.
"Democrats have done a tremendous job increasing registration," said Chuck Muth, a GOP strategist in Carson City. "The big question is whether they'll be able to turn those people out."
