SACRAMENTO — Legislative leaders are weighing contingency plans for a potential fiscal "doomsday" if a slate of ballot measures designed to balance the state budget fails in the May 19 special election.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the bipartisan team of lawmakers pushing the half-dozen propositions continue to insist that the campaign has just begun and can still be won despite a recent public opinion poll showing all but one measure trailing badly.
But, behind the scenes, elected leaders and staffers have begun brainstorming additional budget cuts that might be necessary. That effort comes little more than a month after Schwarzenegger signed a budget that slashed spending and raised taxes to fill a $42-billion deficit.
The six ballot measures include several that would combine to pump nearly $6 billion into the state's 2009-10 spending plan. Even with that revenue, the plunging economy has already dug a potential $8-billion hole in next year's budget. If the propositions fail, the state could face a $14-billion deficit that would grow by an additional $16 billion if Proposition 1A doesn't pass, according to the nonpartisan legislative analyst's office.
Likely targets for deeper budget cuts include higher education, public schools, transportation, the prisons and healthcare, Capitol insiders say. The state also could move to siphon some of the property tax revenue that normally flows to municipalities.
The real-world effects could be grim. In Los Angeles County, thousands of teachers could face layoffs and class sizes would almost certainly rise, said Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles).
"If these initiatives do not pass," she said, "we are looking at cutting $14 billion in programs."
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Selling voters
Bass and other officials who have thrown their weight behind the ballot measures contend that, with seven weeks until election day, their battle is just beginning. With more than $5 million in campaign cash and Schwarzenegger in election mode, they say they hope to sell voters on the need for the measures.
"Doomsday scenarios, that's one thing -- I think it's important to be honest with the people about what the consequences are," said Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento), a key backer of the propositions. "But I don't think it will be a campaign to scare people."
