SEOUL AND TOKYO — Nervous Japanese officials know that the first moments after North Korea launches a rocket will be critical: Barely seven minutes after liftoff, it is likely to be hurtling over Japan's northern coast.
In 1998, Japan was caught unaware when the second stage of a North Korean test rocket sailed over its main island before dropping into the ocean.
This time, North Korea says it plans to put a satellite into orbit. The U.S. and its allies say they fear the launch will actually serve as a test for a ballistic missile.
Either way, nominally pacifist Japan does not intend to be surprised. North Korea said today that its preparations were complete and the launch was imminent.
Tokyo is proffering some unusually tough talk on the consequences of violating its airspace.
After first hinting that it might shoot down the rocket -- a threat that brought a sharp rebuke from the government in Pyongyang -- Japan has warned that it will intercept any falling debris. The nation has moved to high alert. Some commercial flights have been rerouted from the rocket's projected flight path.
Officials have deployed three Aegis-class destroyers and repositioned Patriot missile interceptors in northern Japan and the Tokyo city center to head off any debris.
Its ambassador to the United Nations has said that the launch posed "a threat to the security of Japan."
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton this week defended Japan's preparations, saying it "has every right to protect and defend its territory from what is clearly a missile launch."
And a North Korea expert said Friday that Japan was right to fear the launch.
"There is a real threat here that must be responded to -- this launch will travel over Japanese territory," Daniel Pinkston, North East Asia deputy project director for the International Crisis Group think tank, said at a news conference in Seoul. "If that launch fails and breaks up, it could fall on anyone, including innocent schoolchildren. That is an extremely serious event, and North Korea must be held accountable."
But critics say Japan is exaggerating the risks of flaming rocket debris falling on its populace. In northern Japan, officials say there is no sense of panic. And some analysts say it would be foolhardy to try to shoot down debris with a largely untested missile defense system.
