Colombia's Alvaro Uribe -- return of the South American strongman?

Riding in a taxi in the coastal Colombian city of Cartagena some months ago, I was chatting with a Colombian colleague about whether the country's president, Alvaro Uribe, should be allowed to run for an unprecedented third term. Abruptly, our taxi driver turned and interjected: "You don't know what it was like here before Uribe. Taxi drivers like me were attacked and assaulted all the time. Now we have security."

His passionate, spontaneous testimony reflects a common sentiment in a country that has witnessed a dramatic turnaround in its security situation and high economic growth under Uribe's take-charge leadership. Even his critics acknowledge the decrease in violence, including a 40% drop in homicides and an 80% drop in kidnappings between 2002 and 2007. The very real fear that the state would be overwhelmed by violent guerrilla and paramilitary groups has faded since Uribe took office in 2002.

But does this mean that the law should be changed so that Uribe can run again? Colombia is South America's second-most-populous country and its oldest democracy. The Constitution of 1991 prohibited presidents from seeking reelection, but it was changed in 2005 to allow Uribe's second consecutive term. Now, an additional amendment has been proposed to allow a third term. If Congress backs it, and if it survives legal challenges, the proposed amendment would go to a national referendum later this year. At least a quarter of the electorate, about 7.2 million people, would need to turn out, and a majority of those voters would have to approve it in order to clear the path for Uribe's candidacy in May 2010.

It is possible, of course, that Uribe could be frustrated in his ambitions despite the support he now enjoys. After all, the Colombian economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 after years of strong growth, and the global economic crisis is fueling social unrest. But it is also possible that a politician of Uribe's skill could parlay this sense of anxiety into an argument for political continuity. Uribe, 56, is a former mayor of Medellin, Colombia's second-largest city, as well as a former governor and senator with the Liberal Party. His father, a wealthy cattle rancher, was killed by rebels from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, in a botched kidnapping attempt in 1983. Despite having served nearly two full terms as president, and having suffered some recent stumbles, his favorability ratings remain high, around 70%.